The Nikkei 225 bounced as expected, but not as much as expected, and this sentiment seems to be weighing on the jpy crosses.
Like I said in the last post, the sentiment is still to fade any decent rallies as they just offer up better levels to sell, and sell like hell at that.
Of course, there will be a time when the market bottoms, and unless new lows are made in a number of different markets (DJIA,SP500) etc this could support some of the currencies pairs like EURUSD, EURJPY and USDJPY, in turn supporting other crosses.
We are seeing classic signs of bottoming, the panic is becoming less and new lows are not being made. In fact, as markets are approcahing the lows, they are rallying strongly, so this could point to official support, or at least semi-official support and buying.
The RBA has been busy protecting the AUD for weeks, and the BOJ has more than likely been in at some point buying USDJPY. In these illiquid markets, they get much more bang for their buck, so it makes sense to intervene now. Any hint of co-ordinated intervention after G20 would send the markets on a bounce, and may well be what is needed to kick start the recovery.
One thing is for sure, for the long term investor there are a magnitude of bargains in the equity markets, even buying equity indices and sectors for the long haul would be a great move. If you have time, patience and some cash, I would be buying equities and the EUR on the lows, and selling JPY on it’s highs.
Thats it for now, at the moment no one is reading this, but hopefully given time I may get at least one person!!
Be careful, Shaun, Diablo Limited.